CENTRAL BANK PRICING

Condensed view only. Instead of reproducing every outcome line from the tracker, this page shows the probabilities that matter most for the next ECB and Fed decisions.

ECB · 10 SEP 2026 Polymarket

HIKE99.6%

HOLD0.6%

CUT0.1%

Dominant outcome: 25bp hike at 99.4% in the detailed outcome distribution.

FED · 16 SEP 2026 Polymarket

HIKE50.2%

HOLD49.5%

CUT0.5%

Nearly binary: the market is roughly split between a 25bp hike and no change.

INTERPRETATION rates lens

ECB pricing is unambiguously hawkish, consistent with the sharp rise in the Bund front end and weekly bear flattening. Fed pricing is much less settled, which helps explain why US rates remain sensitive to each macro release.

IMPORTANT CAVEAT source quality

These are prediction-market probabilities, not institutional OIS or Fed-funds-futures pricing. They are useful as a fast sentiment gauge, but should not be treated as a substitute for €STR/OIS, Fed Funds futures or official central-bank communication.